On March 12, the International Energy Agency (IEA) stated in its latest monthly report that the global oil market is facing the most severe supply disruption in history due to the ongoing conflict in the Middle East. With shipping through the Strait of Hormuz nearly disrupted and storage facilities nearing capacity, Gulf states have been forced to cut oil production by at least 10 million barrels per day, and over 3 million barrels per day of refining capacity has been shut down.     Before the conflict, approximately 20 million barrels of crude oil and petroleum products were transported through the Strait of Hormuz; now, this figure has plummeted to negligible levels. The report states that if shipping does not resume soon, the global crude oil supply gap will widen further. The report projects a reduction of 8 million barrels per day in global oil supply in March, with over 4 million barrels per day of refining capacity at risk. The diesel and jet fuel markets are particularly vulnerable due to blocked exports. The report also points out that insufficient available feedstock will restrict production in other regions, potentially leading to supply shortages as late as 2026. In 2025, Gulf producers exported 3.3 million barrels of refined petroleum products and 1.5 million barrels of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) per day.   The report shows that while increased production in non-OPEC+ countries like Kazakhstan and Russia has eased supply tensions, this improvement is insufficient to fully offset the pressures facing the global market. The International Energy Agency (IEA) projects that global oil supply will increase by 1.1 million barrels per day in 2026. This growth is primarily driven by increased production from non-OPEC+ countries. However, it should be noted that the extent of the reduction in oil supply depends on the duration of the conflict and the degree of disruption to trade flows.   The report predicts that flight cancellations and LPG supply disruptions in the Middle East will reduce oil demand by 1 million barrels per day in March and April compared to previous forecasts. The military conflict in Iran and its surrounding regions has not only shaken the global energy market but has also significantly impacted the international ethylene industry and its entire supply chain. Its negative effects are spreading from upstream oil, along core intermediates such as ethylene and VAM (Vinyl Acetate Monomer), and further downstream to fine chemicals such as VAE emulsions. From Europe to Asia, soaring raw material costs and the risk of supply chain disruptions are causing widespread concern in the industry.   Global Ethylene Supply Chain Crisis Tensions in Iran are directly impacting the global ethylene supply chain. As the Middle East's second-largest ethylene producer, Iran has a capacity of approximately 7.88 million tons, accounting for 23% of the region's total. Disruptions to this scale of production directly push up the global cost center for chemical products. The Strait of Hormuz, a crucial global energy shipping chokepoint, handles approximately 20% of global crude oil seaborne trade and a significant proportion of chemical shipments. With Iran's announcement of the strait's closure, concerns about logistical disruptions immediately translated into a market risk premium.   Approximately 11% to 15% of global ethylene and polyethylene supply is directly affected by this conflict, and related chemical prices have already begun to rise. In Europe, March ethylene monthly contract negotiations stalled due to soaring oil prices, with the initially expected increase of €35/ton quickly replaced by expectations of €50-60/ton, reflecting widespread market concerns about supply disruptions. Asian markets also reacted sharply, with naphtha prices surging to multi-month highs. Domestic polyolefin (PP/PE) futures prices in China followed suit, with the spot market shifting from routine restocking to defensive stockpiling.     Downstream supply chains are under pressure This crisis is rapidly spreading along the oil → ethylene → VAM → VAE supply chain. Due to extremely tight ethylene supply, VAM (vinyl acetate monomer) production is directly constrained by raw material shortages, and its market price is facing the risk of soaring. As the core downstream product of VAM, the supply chain stability of VAE (vinyl acetate-ethylene copolymer emulsion) has been severely impacted. The industry generally expects that as VAM costs are passed on, VAE emulsion prices will inevitably rise. However, against the backdrop of widespread industry-wide operating restrictions and a significant reduction in expected VAE output due to insufficient VAM supply, JiangSu ElephChem Holding Limited is able to provide a stable supply of VAM and downstream VAE products.   Website: www.elephchem.com whatsapp: (+)86 13851435272 E-mail: admin@elephchem.com

1. Overview of the Petroleum and Chemical Industry Prosperity Index The business climate index for the oil and gas extraction industry was 85.99, a decrease of 12.36 percentage points month-on-month. In the past two months, influenced by geopolitical tensions, crude oil prices have continued to rise. However, current crude oil prices carry a significant risk premium, coupled with the previous six-month period of "price decline and profit shrinkage," leading companies to question the sustainability of the crude oil price recovery and maintain a cautious production decision. Changes in inventory turnover reflect the end of the phased destocking in January. With rising crude oil prices, companies may be holding onto inventory in anticipation of further price increases, and coupled with the approaching Spring Festival, downstream demand is expected to decrease, resulting in a slowdown in inventory reduction.  The business climate index for the fuel processing industry was 102.18, a decrease of 1.94 percentage points month-on-month. The fuel processing industry exhibits slight differences among products. Diesel end-user consumption hit a new low for the traditional annual trough, highlighting the imbalance between supply and demand. While gasoline demand was supported by short-term travel during the Spring Festival holiday, it quickly declined afterward.  The prosperity index for the chemical raw materials and chemical products manufacturing industry was 105.63, a decrease of 1.71 percentage points month-on-month. The moderate recovery in upstream crude oil prices has not yet pushed up raw material costs, and downstream chemical product prices remain relatively firm, maintaining profit margins. However, production activity decreased due to plant shutdowns and maintenance during the Spring Festival holiday, and downstream new purchases decreased, resulting in an accumulation of finished product inventory and a decline in the industry's prosperity index.  The manufacturing prosperity index for rubber, plastics, and other polymer products was 107.35, a decrease of 3.54 percentage points month-on-month. In January, the industry's prosperity rose due to both raw material cost advantages and seasonal stockpiling demand. However, in early February, downstream stockpiling slowed as the Spring Festival approached, and post-holiday demand recovery was slow in the latter half of the month. Reduced new orders led to increased inventory, causing the industry prosperity index to decline. Currently, the industry is in a phase of inventory digestion, and its future prosperity will depend on the recovery of domestic and international demand.       2. Hotspot Analysis and Future Outlook 2.1 Escalating Geopolitical Tensions in the Middle East and Rising Crude Oil Prices In February, geopolitical tensions in the Middle East escalated sharply, becoming the main driver of rising crude oil prices. On February 28, the United States and Israel launched airstrikes on Tehran, the capital of Iran, and the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps subsequently announced the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a vital global oil transportation route. This event marked a shift from "trade expectation" to "trade reality" in geopolitical conflict, triggering serious market concerns about disruptions to crude oil supply. As a result, oil prices rose rapidly, and the geopolitical risk premium increased significantly. It is estimated that current oil prices already include a risk premium of approximately $8-10 per barrel. Furthermore, a significant proportion of petrochemical products such as Polyvinyl Alcohol (PVA), Polyvinyl Butyral Resin (PVB), and fuel oil are transported through the Strait of Hormuz annually; the continuation of the conflict will inevitably affect the prices of these related products. 2.2 Sluggish Production, Strong Consumption, and Slow Inventory Replenishment This year, benefiting from the longest Spring Festival holiday in history, cross-regional travel demand for family visits and tourism was concentrated, leading to frequent highway traffic peaks and directly boosting gasoline consumption. However, in stark contrast to the surge in residential travel, industrial and infrastructure production activities generally slowed down during the Spring Festival, with diesel consumption entering its traditional annual low period. Daily consumption declined significantly compared to the previous period, and refinery and social inventory pressures continued to increase.  During the Spring Festival consumer market, sales of home appliances and 3C digital products were brisk, providing a temporary boost to demand for related petrochemical raw materials in the upstream rubber, plastics, and other polymer product manufacturing industries, improving industry expectations for post-holiday market performance. However, with the end of the holiday, restocking intentions weakened, and terminal distributors generally entered a destocking cycle, leading to a marginal slowdown in new orders for petrochemical companies. Overall, February was characterized by hot travel, sluggish production, strong consumption, and slow restocking, clearly demonstrating the inherent logic of differentiation within the petrochemical industry and a general correction in its overall prosperity.   3. Outlook for the Oil and Chemical Industry In March 2026, the oil and chemical industry will continue to be affected by macroeconomic factors, costs, and demand. On the macro level, the National People's Congress and the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference (NPC and CPPCC) will release a series of policy signals, pointing the way for market trends in 2026. Regarding crude oil prices, if the geopolitical tensions in the Middle East do not ease and the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, crude oil risk premiums and high volatility are expected to continue in March, potentially leading to further price increases. On the demand side, the resumption of work and production in downstream industries after the Spring Festival was slow, and rising crude oil prices further squeezed the profits of the petrochemical industry. End-user companies maintained only essential purchases and lacked the motivation for concentrated restocking. Whether the previous restocking demand from midstream and downstream industries based on cost advantages can be successfully converted into end-user consumption, and whether the traditional peak season of "Golden March and Silver April" can arrive as scheduled, are key to the recovery of the industry's prosperity. Based on a comprehensive assessment of historical seasonal patterns and current data, the petrochemical industry prosperity index is expected to show a downward trend in March.   Website: www.elephchem.com Whatsapp: (+)86 13851435272 E-mail: admin@elephchem.com

 Embrace the New Year with JiangSu ElephChem Holding Limited!    As the vibrant colors of the Spring Festival begin to brighten the streets and the spirit of renewal fills the air, Jiangsu ElephChem Holding Limited extends our warmest greetings and most sincere wishes to our global partners, clients, and dedicated employees. The Lunar New Year, also known as the Spring Festival, is the most significant traditional holiday in Chinese culture—a time for family reunions, reflection on the past year’s achievements, and setting ambitious goals for the future.   Reflecting on Growth This past year has been a journey of "Chemical Change the World." Through constant innovation and a commitment to excellence in the chemical industry, ElephChem has reached new milestones. We owe this success to the unwavering trust of our international clients and the hard work of our entire team.    The Spirit of the Horse In keeping with the festive spirit (and the majestic imagery of the horse which symbolizes speed, strength, and success), we look forward to "galloping" into the new year with even greater momentum. We remain dedicated to providing high-quality chemical solutions and fostering sustainable development across the globe.   Looking Ahead May the Year of the Lunar New Year bring you and your loved ones boundless joy, prosperity, and good health. Let us continue to work together to create a brighter, more innovative future through the power of chemistry.    Holiday Notice To allow our team to celebrate this cherished time with their families, please be advised of our holiday schedule: Holiday Period: February 15th to February 23rd Resume Business: February 24th   Happy Lunar New Year! Wishing You a Year of Achievements and Abundance!   Website: www.elephchem.com Whatsapp: (+)86 13851435272 E-mail: admin@elephchem.com

On January 16, 2026, the Secretariat of Foreign Trade of the Brazilian Ministry of Development, Industry, Trade and Services (MDIC/SECEX) issued Notice No. 2 of 2026. At the request of the Brazilian company (ASK Crios Produtos Químicos Ltda), Brazil has formally initiated an anti-dumping investigation into phenolic resin products originating from China. The initiation of this investigation indicates rising trade compliance and cost risks for Chinese phenolic resin exports to the Brazilian market. Relevant exporters are advised to closely monitor the case and proactively assess its potential impact on their business operations.     1. Potential Impact on Chinese Phenolic Resin Exports to Brazil Based on Brazil’s previous anti-dumping cases, if the investigation results in an affirmative final determination, the following impacts may occur: A significant increase in export costs for phenolic resins originating from China Erosion of price competitiveness in the Brazilian market A shift by Brazilian customers toward alternative sources of supply Increased uncertainty regarding the profitability and performance of existing contracts For Phenolic formaldehyde resin producers and exporters that rely heavily on the Brazilian market, continuing with a single direct export model may present elevated operational and commercial risks.   2. Role of Third-Country Trade Arrangements in Risk Management Under a legal and compliant framework, third-country trade arrangements have become a commonly adopted risk management approach in international chemical trade. The underlying principles include: Anti-dumping measures are applied based on the determined country of origin If products are traded through a third country in full compliance with applicable regulations And obtain the corresponding origin status in accordance with origin rules The applicable trade measures upon entry into Brazil will be determined based on the recognized origin All related activities must strictly comply with the laws, regulations, and origin rules of the relevant jurisdictions.   3. Key Compliance Considerations in Phenolic Resin Trade Operations Given the characteristics of phenolic resin products, companies should pay particular attention to the following aspects when planning trade and logistics structures: ♣ Selection of Trade Hub Countries Certain Southeast Asian countries are often evaluated due to their mature chemical trade infrastructure and stable trade relations with Latin America. Final decisions should be made based on product form, HS classification, and Brazilian customs requirements. ♣ Origin Compliance Management Regardless of whether further processing is involved, strict adherence to origin rules is essential, including: Compliance with origin determination standards Lawful application for Certificates of Origin (CO) and related documentation Consistency across commercial, logistics, and customs documents ♣ Logistics and Documentation Structure Trade routes should be carefully designed to ensure that transportation, customs clearance, and re-export processes comply with local regulations, while maintaining a complete and consistent documentation system to mitigate compliance risks.   4. Recommendations for Exporters: Early Assessment and Strategic Planning In response to Brazil’s anti-dumping investigation on Chinese phenolic resins, exporters are advised to consider the following actions: Promptly review the product scope and relevant HS codes involved Exercise caution when accepting new direct export orders to Brazil Develop alternative and diversified trade pathway options in parallel Work with experienced professional service providers to ensure regulatory compliance Early-stage planning and systematic assessment can significantly reduce the operational and financial impact during the investigation period and after the final determination.   5. Conclusion Brazil’s initiation of an anti-dumping investigation into Chinese Phenoic formaldehyde resin highlights the increasingly stringent global trade environment for chemical products. The risks associated with relying on a single export route are becoming more pronounced. Against this backdrop, strengthening compliance management, optimizing market strategies, and enhancing trade risk control capabilities are essential for Chinese phenolic resin exporters seeking sustainable growth in Brazil and the broader Latin American market.   Website: www.elephchem.com Whatsapp: (+)86 13851435272 E-mail: admin@elephchem.com